How bad will the energy crisis get?

Video summary

Yuri sees an 80% chance of a six-month Hormuz crisis, with oil reaching $150–$200 per barrel.

Economist Yuri explains how the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens oil, refined fuels, and LNG markets, noting that about 20% of global oil and gas flows originate in the Persian Gulf. Asia is especially exposed to Middle Eastern crude, while globally traded LNG, diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel spread price shocks worldwide. Strategic reserves have helped, but releases are finite: Europe has about 90 days of oil reserves, compared with 224 for Japan. Yuri assigns a 10% chance to a quick reopening, an 80% chance to a conflict lasting six months or more, and 10% to Trump restricting US energy exports. In his likeliest scenario, oil reaches $150–$200 per barrel and US energy prices roughly double. He warns of wider fallout, including inflation, fertilizer-related food pressures, expensive air travel, and currency risks in South Asia.

Chapters

1. 0:00Intro: Hormuz closure threatens roughly 20% of global oil and gas
2. 2:10Context: US diesel rises nearly 100% as Gulf fuels and crude markets diverge
3. 6:32Context: Japan has 224 reserve days while Europe has 90
4. 10:38Scenarios: prolonged war gets 80% odds, with Brent at $150–$200
5. 17:00Other effects: food and currency risks, plus The Economist's 35% offer